fatpat

Good morning

fatpat

Good morning

fatpat

引用:

原帖由 CB900 於 2014-4-10 09:29 發表
當計算股票岀現上升訊號，時間和價位也有，3988亦是指數成份股，基本因素非常好，帳面值也4.2，所以在適當時間可以推大D, 況且是股票可以守下，不過今年人仔傾向貶值，可能拖累股价 ...

3988 @3.5

Think up, less risk strategy - Married Put

1) Buy Stock                Buy @3.5
2) LP Far Month ITM   Dec LP3.9 @0.690 (MID PT 0.674 ~7.8%)
    XBC3.60X4 0.415 0.448 Max loss (3.6 - 3.5 - 0.448) / 3.5 = 10%
    XBC3.70X4 0.493 0.528 Max loss (3.7 - 3.5 - 0.528) / 3.5 = 9.4%
    XBC3.80X4 0.571 0.607  Max loss (3.8 - 3.5 - 0.607) / 3.5 = 8.8%
    XBC3.90X4 0.658 0.690  Max loss (3.9 - 3.5 - 0.690) / 3.5 = 8.3%

So CAP THE MAX LOSS @0.29 or 8.3%

In the meantime, when it do go up, SC and/or do other stuff.

Good if you project a 3-5% up in coming 1-3 weeks, and in an long term UPTREND

fatpat

OK Let's try Future Vs Option

Margin for Future ~$70,000, RESERVED $100K for 1 contract

Let's assume retreat to 22750 tomorrow, current 22860

Ku Future @22860, eat tomorrow @22750, profit 110pts, ROI 110 X $50 / $100k = 5.5%

                                   Delta Theta IV      ROI
LP228 @231 /279  -0.46  -7.4    12.6 (279-231)/231 = 20.8%
LP226 @164 /200  -0.35  -6.7    13.3 (200-164)/164 = 22.0%
LP224 @110 /133  -0.25   -6.0    13.7 (133-110)/110 = 20.9%
LP222 @74   / 90    -0.18  -5.1    14.3 (90  - 74 )/ 74   = 21.6%
LP220 @50  /  62    -0.13  -4.3    15.1 (62  - 50)/  50   = 24.0%

So playing options advantage
1, Less margin requirement
2, More Flexible

Future advantage
1, Smaller Bid/Ask Spread
2, Faster execution
3, Usually cheaper commissions

fatpat

WELL already ~22750

@22780
228P@292
226P@203
224P@141
222P@97
220P@65

fatpat

.                 Buy            Target       ROI              Market       Error              ROI
LP228         @231        @279        20.80%        @292        +13                26.40%
LP226        @164         @200        22.00%        @203        +39                23.80%
LP224        @110         @133        20.90%        @141        +8                  20.90%
LP222        @74           @90          21.60%        @97          +7                  31.10%
LP220        @50           @62          24.00%        @65          +3                  30%

[ 本帖最後由 fatpat 於 2014-4-10 10:24 編輯 ]

fatpat

PROBLEM WITH OPTIONS

The market moves faster than you do the analysis
- Before I can post the analysis this morning, market hit target price already

Solution - do the math at night while the market not moving
                - after you make it as your second nature (subconscious mind)

The bid/ask spread may be larger than you want

The commissions would be larger than you think

The market doesn't have enough contracts for you
Said you bid for 10 contracts @200, DL 200 but you might have settle only 2 contracts

Worst case, market move so fast MM (Market maker) don't give you the price,
e.g Gap up in the pre-market, but they know there will be retreat,
       they won't give you the fair price

P.S. Next post with commission factor

fatpat

So quick, get back that 110pts and back to 22860 again

.                 Buy          Target        ROI              Market        Diff        ROI        Comm     ROI       #contract
Future        @22860   @22750      5.50%        @22750                  5.50%    2              5.40%     1
LP228        @231       @279        20.80%        @292        +13        26.40%  3             25.10%    8
LP226        @164       @200        22.00%        @203        +39        23.80%  3             22.00%  12
LP224        @110       @133        20.90%        @141        +8          20.90%  3             18.20%  18
LP222        @74         @90          21.60%        @97          +7          31.10%  3             27.00%  27
LP220        @50         @62          24.00%        @65          +3          30%       3             24.00%  40

With LP220, $100K can buy ($100000 / $50 / 50 =) 40 contracts

[ 本帖最後由 fatpat 於 2014-4-10 10:53 編輯 ]

fatpat

引用:

原帖由 sinding 於 2014-4-10 11:00 發表

有冇对应技術啊？如有想唔發逹都幾难！可在短消息交流！

x2

fatpat

引用:

原帖由 ~family~ 於 2014-4-10 12:38 發表


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