kee

thanks!!!!!!

KM88

牛熊證總街貨量變化               
收回區        相對期指張數        一日相對期指張數變化
19,500-19,599        248         (92)
19,400-19,499        113         (42)
19,300-19,399        375         (87)
19,200-19,299        540         185
19,100-19,199        538         34
19,000-19,099        217         71
上日收市價 : 18,872                 
18,500-18,599        282         85
18,400-18,499        550         127
18,300-18,399        95         85
18,200-18,299        124         97
18,100-18,199        58         49
18,000-18,099        637        (138)

KM88

[6/13/2012 8:14:07 AM]: 指數對期貨的合理價值：

香港恆生期貨
六月：-76.41
七月：-72.31

國企期貨
六月：-72.09
七月：-81.75
資料由 Bloomberg 提供.

fatpat

Good morning

fatpat

引用:

原帖由 KM88 於 2012-6-13 08:24 發表
牛熊證總街貨量變化               
收回區        相對期指張數        一日相對期指張數變化
19,500-19,599        248         (92)
19,400-19,499        113         (42)
19,300-19,399        375         ( ...

Killing BEAR this morning

Haven't see this action for a long time....

edwardwcf21

真的可以嗎 ??  都唔知能否上去 191

vania

[quote]原帖由 fatpat 於 2012-6-12 17:50 發表


IF you have margin, then the below set is quite attractive

LP180 x 1
SP176 x 1

and

SP168 x 2
Breakeven @166

or .............
12days to expire, 2200pts away (188 - 166).
No risk if shoot up, but $20,000 profit if close a little bit below the 176 support.

fatpat c. ching

我是新丁, 吾明點計, 可以指教下嗎 ?  謝謝 !

fatpat

引用:

原帖由 vania 於 2012-6-13 09:37 發表
[quote]原帖由 fatpat 於 2012-6-12 17:50 發表


IF you have margin, then the below set is quite attractive

LP180 x 1
SP176 x 1

and

SP168 x 2
Bre ...

Using current bid/ask

LP180 x 1 @155
SP176 x 1 @93
Debit (155 - 93) 62pts
This is a Bear Put Spread, i.e. using put to short (think downward)
and it is a debit trade, i.e. you have to pay 62pts for this spread.

SP168 x 2 @36
Credit (36 x 2) 72pts
This is a naked short, i.e. no protection and you might LOSS a lot.

fatpat

Cont....

You gain 72pts and pay 62pts, thus nett 10pts, enough to cover the commissions.

Consider the market

18000 or above  -> all contract will expire, so you loss nothing.
17600 - 18000    -> you win the difference between 18000 and the closing price (LP180)
                                    e.g. close @17800, LP180 will win 200pts,
                                    and all the SP will expired worthless.
16800 - 17600    -> you win from LP180 but loss from SP176, you win your maximum 400pts
                                    e.g. close 17400, LP180 will win (18000 - 17400) 600pts
                                            but                  SP176 will loss (17400 - 17600) 200pts,
                                            and                 SP168 will expire worthless,
                                            thus nett 400pts, the best case

16600 - 16800    -> you win from LP but loss from all SP, the SP168 will eat your profit,
                                    so 400pts for 2 naked contract, or can afford to loss 200pts for each,
                                    therefore breakeven @16600
                                    e.g. close 16600, LP180 will win (18000 - 16600) 1400pts
                                                                    SP176 will loss (16600 - 17600) 1000pts
                                                                    SP168 will loss (16600 - 16800)   200pts x 2 (you naked short 2 contract)
                                           thus 1400 - 1000 - 200 x 2, you win nothing, i.e breakeven.
16600 and less   -> you loss

fatpat

Since it is 12 days from closing, and 2200pts (10%+) away from breakeven,
and the big SUPPORT @17400, the set looks promising.

Assume this weekend Greece election left wing loss and Greece will stay in Euro zone,
market not going down, you loss nothing.
But then if left wing win and bargain with the Euro head, market might drop to the support ~17500,
before their summit later next week, and if stay there to close, you win $20,000.
Worse case, Greece leave the Euro zone and cause uncertain, you need to hedge in the final week,
since the last week the time premium is small and you win $20,000 from the LP180/SP176 set,
you have some money to hedge / roll over.